That a recession is coming is almost certain according to most of the investing world. It is now more a question of predicting the course more accurately. And with one frighteningly accurate one comes a well-known billionaire CEO.

The United States is on the brink of a recession that could put millions of Americans out of work. Barry Sternlicht, chairman of the Starwood Capital Group investment fund and billionaire, appeared on CNBC to relay his timeline of the coming recession. Here's how he thinks it will play out.

What's going to happen?

"The recession will happen in the third or fourth quarter. Consumers are out of money. Their savings rate is at an all-time low."

On the other hand, he comes with better news, because Sternlicht expects inflation to be negative before the recession hits in the second half of the year.¨

"Inflation will fall further as the supply chain continues to be resolved. By May or June, inflation will be in negative territory."

He expects inflation to fall to 2% by the end of the year, marking a victory for the Federal Reserve and its strategy of sharply raising interest rates. Sternlicht is far from the only economist predicting a recession in 2023. A recession is likely to come, and it may well be very different than anyone expected. What to prepare for?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTKzpnbY_vI

Economists say the biggest threat is higher interest rates and costs. However, lower interest rates and costs, higher labor force participation and improved supply chains are positive possibilities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwaCg7Gwtzw

Based on monthly rental activity since 2021, Goldman Sachs economists see the core inflation rate falling faster than expected as asking rents in apartments fall. However, housing costs remain elevated, according to the central bank. Shelter costs, which are the single largest component of the consumer price index, jumped 0.8% in December , while their annual growth rose to a new 40-year high of 7.5% from 7.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

Sternlicht warned last year that the global economy would collapse if the U.S. central bank did not stop raising interest rates. He also said the Fed should pause and evaluate how its interest rate hikes are affecting the economy because the bank has done enough to curb inflation. The Fed has delivered seven consecutive rate hikes for 2022, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25 to 4.5 percent, the highest target for the federal funds rate since 2007.

Barry Sternlicht

After graduation, he went to work for JMB Realty, a real estate investment firm in Chicago. He was laid off in 1989, at the onset of the savings and loan crisis and recession of the early 1990s. In 1991, at age 31, Sternlicht co-founded Starwood Capital Group with Bob Faith to buy apartment buildings that were being sold by the Resolution Trust Corporation, created by the federal government to hold and liquidate the real estate assets of failed banks after the crisis. His empire continued to grow thereafter.

According to Forbes magazine, Sternlicht's net worth is estimated at $4.4 billion and he is ranked 260th on the Forbes 400 list.

Disclaimer: This is in no way an investment recommendation. This is purely my summary and analysis based on data from the internet and other sources. Investing in the financial markets is risky and everyone should invest based on their own decisions. I am just an amateur sharing my opinions.