A little philosophy in the direction of the market? ...
Yesterday I had the CPI results in the US. 4.9% for April. Last month, March 5%. The core CPI, that's excluding the volatile food and energy categories, 5.5%, also down 0.1%.
Today we have the PPI results.
There was a 0.25 basis point increase in interest rates last week.
The unemployment rate also fell to 3.4% from 3.5%.
This is all just a recap of what has been said here in succession since your posts. What about the market? The US indices (I rate the SP500 and NASDAX100) are rising. Since April we see a sideways move with occasional attempt to break resistance. The tech sector is also doing quite well, is that driving up?
On the other hand, we have frequent rumblings of a recession. Crashes in the banking sector. And last but not least, probably the biggest bogeyman, the US debt ceiling.
There's a lot of data out there and I believe a lot of people with an economics background are asking the question, what do we do about it? What's going to happen? ... Nobody has a fortune-telling ball, but we're not getting into a bubble. Is raising the debt ceiling again the cure?
I don't know, I'm not an expert, so I can't tell all the consequences, but I don't think the market should go up to new highs yet. What do you think, let's break it down a bit. :)
For me, there could be a very mild recession where it could be a bit more lazy to buy. But a lot of it also depends on whether other banks fail, etc.
I'm worried about the situation in the US. I'm selling profitable investments in dollars and will wait. I'm also buying more in the EU and pouring more money into real estate.
I have a bit of an unfortunate feeling that the US will be finished within this decade.
I think we'll be sort of "wall-to-wall" this whole year depending on what's going on in the world (Ukraine, Tai wan, Banks....) and when this calms down, it'll be "good" again :) Or something completely new will come and it will go completely to hell... :-D
We might well regret it later if we try to time the market now. There are already many good opportunities, and if we like something, we don't overthink it. Of course, I'm also holding more cashe than normal so that I'm prepared for any major discounts, which I expect as well. We're going for the long term. 😊
The market is really being pushed both ways right now, but it is being kept from great irrationality by a really massive resistance where it is now. I wouldn't be surprised if we went up, but if I had to bet, the way down is more than a distinct possibility.
No new highs, but I don't think we're heading into another giant crash either