Palantir Is Up 96%. Why Haven’t Shareholders Made Any Money This Year?
Revenue +96%, commercial business surpassing government for the first time, and the outlook raised for the third time in a year. Yet the stock is flat since January. That’s because the price of $178 already reflects something Palantir failed to deliver in the third quarter.
Key points
Revenue jumped 96% to a record $2.313 billion, while the stock is practically flat since January.
U.S. commercial business surpassed government contracts for the first time, yet the market sent the stock lower after the results were released.
One metric in the results plunged from +153% to +11% in a single quarter, explaining the market’s reaction.
The CFO has an answer ready for the weaker numbers, but it comes with a second, less pleasant side.
Analysts’ price targets range from $90 to $265—a spread of more than threefold.
Three raised forecasts, but the stock is flat
Palantir Technologies $PLTR has just reported the best quarter in its history. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 jumped 96% to $2.313 billion, topping $2 billion for the first time in a three-month period. U.S. commercial business ($984 million) surpassed U.S. government contracts ($953 million) for the first time. And the full-year 2026 outlook was raised for the third consecutive time: from February’s $7.18–$7.20 billion to today’s $8.53 billion. In nine months, the company has added more than $1.3 billion to its forecast.
And the result for shareholders? The stock closed at $178.34 on November 2, down 3.1%, then lost a further roughly 3.8% in after-hours trading following the release. It is down more than 16% from its October high of $212.94. It is up 0.3% year to date and down 13.9% over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 gained 10.1% over the same period.
So the business doubled, and shareholders got nothing out of it. The explanation is simple and uncomfortable at the same time: the P/E ratio fell from its five-year average of 290 to 136 today. The market simply let the company grow into the price it had already assigned it. Every dollar of new earnings went toward paying off old expectations, not driving a new rise in the stock price.