My scenarios for the coming days and weeks
Based on an analysis of my portfolio and the current market situation, I have three scenarios outlined for the short/medium-term outlook. I note that these scenarios are developed for my portfolio, which does not have a high correlation with the S&P 500.
Optimistic scenario: We can expect another decline of 3–5%, then a short period of stagnation and a recovery to pre-drop levels.
Realistic scenario: We’ll drop another 10%, followed by a longer stagnation and a slow return upward.
Catastrophic scenario: The decline will be greater than 20%, and only then will we see how things develop further (especially for tech stocks).
In all three scenarios I will wait to make further stock purchases until the decline ends and the trend is confirmed either sideways or upward. Besides that, I plan to hold a stable part of my portfolio, which for me consists of the stocks $KO, $BTI, $MO, $BRK.B, $T, $CVX.
This fits into my overall conservative, long-term approach based on patience and discipline.
Do you have your own scenarios for what comes next? Optimistic, realistic, or are you preparing for the worst? Share them in the comments.
Bulios Black
This user has access to exclusive content, tools and features of the Bulios platform thanks to their subscription.
I don't have scenarios, I'm a long-term investor.
Bulios Black
This user has access to exclusive content, tools and features of the Bulios platform thanks to their subscription.
I'd lean toward another decline in the indexes — both the S&P 500 and the US100 — if we don't see a strong rejection of lower prices and a bounce today and early next week. If we do, I'll use it to take long positions, but I'd prefer to see a bit more downside first. For the US100, down to around 23,000 would be fine.