Macro - Articles
BLACK The calm half of your portfolio is now losing more than stocks
American bond funds have received a record $542 billion this year from people seeking calm. On Tuesday, the largest of them fell 1.3%, nearly twice as much as the Nasdaq on a day when Nvidia dropped. Yet the statement shows a rising yield.
BLACK Inflation Again! Your Growth Stocks Are in for More Tough Times
US inflation in October came in higher than the market expected, driven by gasoline and electricity - two items Fed rates can't reach. And yet a rate hike is in the works. Who stands to benefit, and who will pay?
BLACK Hedge funds sold tech for five months. So who kept stocks afloat? You and your ETFs
The Nasdaq 100 shed 6.4% in a single day, while companies in the index reported earnings growth of 31%. It wasn't earnings that drove prices down, but professionals who were forced to sell. And for months, the buyers on the other side were ordinary investors' index funds.
BLACK Why Can Tokyo Send Your Stocks Down More Than the Fed?
Wall Street had its worst day since spring 2025, and the Japanese yen barely budged. That's not good news. The biggest pile of cheap borrowed money in thirty years hasn't moved yet, and December offers two reasons why it might.
BLACK Who Pays the AI Bill? Probably the Stocks You Already Own
Memory prices have roughly quadrupled in a year, and phone, computer, and console makers are footing the bill. The biggest payer is also the largest holding in most index portfolios. For now, the market is pricing in both sides as if one of them must be wrong.
BLACK The Nasdaq Is in a Correction, but Most Stocks Are Rising. Where Is the Money Going?
The Nasdaq 100 is in a correction, but 346 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 rose on Monday. Money isn't leaving the market; it's just moving away from companies paying for AI buildouts with new shares and debt. For holders of technology ETFs, that has one uncomfortable consequence.
The year's strongest months are beginning. Will the rally reach your ETF too?
November and December have historically been among the best months for stocks. But October split the market in two, and this time it won't be the calendar or the economy that decides where the rally goes, but the budgets of a handful of companies for data centers.
BLACK Behind Closed Doors, the Price of Money for Your European Stocks Is Being Decided
Lagarde is leaving the ECB nine months early, and markets celebrated with a rally. Interest rates are almost a done deal. The new ECB chief will decide something else - and France is trading support for the job for a different seat.
BLACK Cheap Money in Europe Is Over. These Stocks Will Feel It Before Earnings Are Out
The ECB has raised rates only twice, and yet eurozone banks are turning off the credit tap at the fastest pace in fifteen years. Which companies in your portfolio will be hit first, who will benefit instead, and where will it show up in earnings before the market prices it in?
BLACK Four in Ten Stocks in Your ETF Are Down. So Who's Making Money?
S&P 500 is up by tens of percentage points this year compared with the average stock in it. Bond king Gundlach talks about a hollow tree. But the data show something missing from his warning: the narrow market is only six weeks old, and the first branch has already snapped.
BLACK China's AI bubble has burst, and the index has plunged 40%. Is the S&P 500 next?
China's AI index lost 40% without a single piece of bad news. A shift in sentiment was enough. The U.S. market has so far avoided a similar correction, even though seven companies make up more than a third of the S&P 500 and Meta spent more than it earned for the first time since 2012. So the…
BLACK Two numbers on Thursday will matter more for your stocks than all the earnings reports
Companies are reporting their strongest earnings growth in years, yet stocks are falling. On Thursday, GDP and core PCE will show how much the market is willing to pay for those earnings. Strong growth can be bad for markets, and one inflation report will offer two truths.
BLACK Lowest Unemployment in 57 Years. That's Not Good News for Your Portfolio
U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, and the market shrugged. Behind the record is a frozen labor market that gives the Fed a free hand to raise rates further. For growth stocks, that's worse news than it seems.
BLACK France Is Paying Over 5% on Its Debt for the First Time Since 2002. European ETFs Are at Risk
The yield on French bonds has exceeded 5% for the first time since the euro was introduced, and Paris is borrowing at a higher rate than Rome. The market isn't betting on a default, but on something more insidious for your portfolio. And this time, the ECB has no way to intervene.
BLACK Copper at a Record, Gold Down a Quarter. Which Side Is Your Portfolio On?
War, oil above $100 a barrel, inflation above 3.5%. This is exactly why people buy gold - and yet it's falling. Copper, by contrast, is challenging its record. Both metals are betting on one and the same thing, and only one side can be right.
Why Are Your AI Stocks Falling Even Though Companies Aren't Reporting Anything Bad?
Chip stocks have fallen for eight days in a row, and Wall Street is blaming the November 3 elections. But the risk the market is selling right now follows a completely different calendar than investors think.
The “safe” part of the portfolio has been losing money for 74 months. U.S. bonds are experiencing the longest slump in history
Bonds are supposed to cushion a portfolio against shocks. But U.S. Treasuries have been losing value for more than six years, the 10-year yield has jumped above 5%, and long-term funds are down by a third over five years. What had to happen for “safety” to stop working?
BLACK Why are small stocks falling 11%, while large ones are breaking records?
Russell 2000 is in correction, S&P 500 a few percent below record. Same rates, same inflation, opposite result. The difference isn't in resilience, but in who got the bill for more expensive money first - and who has it still ahead.
Are European banks falling because of France or Italy?
The best-performing sector in Europe took its biggest hit since March in just two days. The culprit is based in Paris, but the biggest bill may come from elsewhere. Anyone holding European banks or index ETFs should know what they are actually betting on.
Oil may get cheaper and it still won't help your portfolio
The market is waiting for a barrel to fall and takes it as a sign of relief. But this year's inflation isn't born in oil fields. It's born in refineries, and according to forecasts nothing changes there even in 2027. What will that do to stocks, bonds, and rates?